-
Can upcoming CPI justify BoE policy easing expectations in June?
UK policy rate decision scheduled for 20 June will be influenced by two upcoming inflation reports. Current consensus and market pricing indicate a 60% probability of a rate cut. However, this decision remains a close call, contingent on the data from these two inflations releases. Recent macroeconomic data for the UK economy have shown some softening in the labour market with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in Q1 2024 from 3.8% in October-December 2023. Wage growth remains elevated at 5.9%, which does not provide sufficient comfort for a rate easing. Real rates turned positive starting in October 2023 and ... (full story)