EUR rates, and in particular European government bonds, should be underpinned by supportive technicals this week. Namely, supply is lighter than last week, and month-end maturity extension flow should be lending a helping hand. On the other side of the equation however, there is strong momentum in favour of higher rates. Data keeps surprising to the upside, and yields seem to be still in the midst of pricing in a world where central bank support is gradually withdrawn. As a result, the pause in the rise in EUR rates should prove only temporary, and it is too early in our view for bonds to experience a pre-ECB pause ... (full story)