Is this new optimism or just a false feeling of new normality? In any case, Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, just increased to 91.8 in April, from 90.8 in March. Both the current assessment and the expectations component increased. However, we warn against this early optimism, as the war in Ukraine will leave much more structural marks on the German economy than Covid. Leaving the war behind? We think it's too early Soft indicators paint a very mixed picture of how the war in Ukraine, high energy and commodity prices as well as continuing and new supply chain frictions are affecting the ... (full story)