Canada’s economy performed very well over 2022H1 but may be poised for a moderation into Q3 (charts 1, 2). The way the GDP math works points to a loss of the running head start into Q3 compared to the early advantage that Q1 and Q2 GDP growth enjoyed. With huge cautions given that it’s a highly preliminary argument, it may be that the shine is about to come off Canadian GDP growth into the third quarter. {charts} Because US data exceeded consensus expectations (see below), the mildly better than expected Canadian GDP figures were shaken off by USDCAD that barely budged. The US front-end is underperforming Canada’s, ... (full story)