Hi all, and welcome back on The Macro Compass! Economic data continues to disappoint with some pretty impressive downside surprises in leading, interest-rate sensitive sectors like housing. QT is about to accelerate and the friendly dynamics behind the Fed balance sheet composition which helped risk assets stage a comeback rally in July are likely to fade away in Q4. Nevertheless, we just heard Powell deliver a very decisive speech in Jackson Hole where he stressed out that the Fed won’t be making another mistake: after underestimating inflation in 2021 and delaying the tightening cycle, they will not prematurely ... (full story)