On Thursday, a blowout jobs report pushed US yields to the highest in 16 years — unleashing fresh bets that Jerome Powell & Co. will ramp up borrowing costs well past 5%. Just 24 hours later, Wall Street’s conviction is already fraying after headline nonfarm payrolls data came in a little soft, sending two-year yields back to Wednesday levels. The volatility is raising a question in the bond community on why anyone would be tempted to trade the ADP monthly jobs data when it has — at best — a middling track record of jibing with the government data. The answer for the haywire moves, in all likelihood, is that a ... (full story)