Both the ECB and the Fed are probably done raising rates for now, but it will take longer than in previous cycles before rate cuts are delivered. Ample government bond supply will keep upward pressure on longer dated rates. Central banks are probably done raising rates, but despite the market’s eagerness to look for weakness, rate cuts are still far away. We expect the Fed to stay for hold for all of next year, and for the ECB to wait until June before easing. Markets expects central banks to stay on-hold no longer than at the top of pervious cycles, but forget that this is the first time since the 80s that ... (full story)