Will probably need to wait until the start of the next fiscal year in determining wage talks outcome. • The outcome will be crucial in making any big policy decisions. • Does not think BOJ are at the stage to discuss an end to negative rates. That seems to be the consensus and what markets are also pricing in at the moment, that is the BOJ will use the shuntō in March/April as a springboard to push forward policy tightening. But as a reminder, that was already supposed to be the narrative this year. (full story)

Positive wage-inflation cycle has not happened yet. • But if chances of it happening increases, then we can start discussing exit strategy. • Don't need to necessarily wait for it to turn positive to debate exit from negative rates. He's certainly trying to keep their options open and that is arguably the wise thing as they already touted the spring wage negotiations next year as being the stepping stone for a policy pivot. It's now a question of following through on that. (full story)