Financial markets have started 2024 with a rebound in interest rates as central banks have pushed back against expectations of near-term rate cuts. We keep our baseline forecasts largely unchanged but see risks towards earlier ECB and later Fed cuts. Financial markets have re-estimated their near-term pricing profile in earnest early this year as central banks have pushed back on the earlier rather aggressive market pricing, while US economic data releases have illustrated that the US economy is not in any dire need of lower rates. At the same time, increasing tensions in the Middle East have served as a reminder ... (full story)