Geopolitical fragmentation is accelerating, as seen with recent events in Asia and the Middle East. We see it keeping inflation pressures elevated longer term. • U.S. stocks climbed to record highs last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as markets priced in fewer rate cuts – but still more than we expect. • We think the European Central Bank will hold rates steady at its policy meeting this week, and the Bank of Japan faces pressure to tighten its ultra-loose policy. Geopolitical fragmentation, one of five mega forces or structural shifts we track, is playing out in recent events in Asia and the Middle East. ... (full story)