US GDP growth moderated in Q1, but it was still a solid result. While a bit lower than we expected we have left our 2024 GDP forecast unchanged. • Overall, the various indicators continue to point to a gradual softening in labour market pressures, although the Employment Cost Index grew more strongly than expected in Q1. • Q1 core PCE inflation was well above the Fed’s target. We still consider that inflation will ease from here and track back towards the Fed’s 2% target. • The Fed left rates on hold at its May meeting. We expect the next move will be a cut, most likely in September. If there are further inflation ... (full story)