Investors and financial markets will be very surprised – and not at all happy – should Thursday’s ECB announcement not include the first cut in key interest rates since September 2019. With even the more hawkish Governing Council (GC) members having now adopted a notably more dovish line, recent central bank rhetoric has seemingly made a 25 basis point reduction a done-deal. This would lower the key deposit rate from its current record high to 3.75 percent, the refi rate to 4.25 percent and the rate on the marginal lending facility to 4.50 percent. Assuming that rates are cut, the focus will be on any forward ... (full story)