I am ready to call it. The Fed should cut rates. July would be the right time to start in my opinion. To be clear, I don’t think they will do this. I still think the baseline first cut is November because the next few inflation prints will appear sticky enough for the Fed to keep rates where they are. And the election is too close to the September meeting for them to initiate cuts then. So I still think November is what we’re looking at. But if I were Jerome Powell I would cut in July. Here’s why: If you look at the Roche Recession Rule, (not so) famously named for myself, by myself, you’ll see that there’s been no ... (full story)