Although the Fed’s updated dot plot pointed to only one quarter-point reduction by the end of the year, the softer-than-expected CPI numbers a few hours ahead of last week’s decision did not convince market participants about officials’ intentions. The weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers this week corroborated that view. Indeed, according to Fed funds futures, investors are penciling in around 50bps worth of reductions by the end of the year, assigning around a 70% probability for the first cut to be delivered in September.With all that in mind, the main item on dollar traders’ agenda next week may be the core ... (full story)