Continued strength in the U.S. economy has led to a longer horizon for interest-rate cuts by the Fed. We now expect the first rate cut this cycle coming in December 2024, roughly two quarters later than our previous forecast. A delayed start to rate cuts will likely affirm EM central banks' determination in anchoring inflation expectations--meaning the process of shifting monetary policy to neutral from restrictive will take longer than previously assumed. High interest rates will likely linger as several factors continue weighing on inflation trajectory, including political uncertainty and its effect on EM exchange ... (full story)