The June ANZ Business Outlook survey remained weak in the forwardlooking activity indicators with a marked decline in reported past activity, as shown in figure 2 (which charts a 3-month average). Construction is experiencing the largest fall in activity versus a year earlier, followed by retail, but every sector except agriculture is reporting weaker activity than a year earlier. While Q1 GDP was (barely) respectable, the signals for Q2 GDP are extremely weak. We have pencilled in a small decline at this early stage.Turning to inflation indicators (figure 3), the net proportion of firms expecting higher costs and ... (full story)