There’s a new buzzword in central banking: scenarios. A growing chorus of Federal Reserve officials is discussing the advantages of communicating how they would respond to various economic outcomes different from their baseline forecast. The post-pandemic recovery has repeatedly surprised economists on Wall Street and at the Fed, leading to abrupt changes in market expectations for interest rates. That has prompted fresh discussion about how central bankers can better explain the risks and uncertainty around the outlook for policy moves. “The path of the economy is so uncertain — which means that our response to it, ... (full story)