USD FOMC Economic Projections
It's the primary tool the Fed uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors;
This report includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts. Source first released in Apr 2011;
- History
Expected Impact / Date | Description |
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Jun 12, 2024 | |
Mar 20, 2024 | |
Dec 13, 2023 | |
Sep 20, 2023 | |
Jun 14, 2023 | |
Mar 22, 2023 | |
Dec 14, 2022 | |
Sep 21, 2022 | |
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- USD FOMC Economic Projections News
- From podcasts.apple.com|Jun 14, 2024
podcast A big macro week is behind us: the combination of CPI and PPI releases provide us with solid information on where the disinflation trend stands. Alf and Brent also discuss Powell’s press conference + change in dots and the European political risks.
- From pimco.com|Jun 13, 2024
One softer-than-expected monthly inflation reading didn’t stop Federal Reserve officials from delaying the expected start of interest rate cuts. On the same day that core consumer price index (CPI) inflation registered its softest monthly reading in almost three years, the Fed adjusted higher its estimate for where its policy rate would land at year-end. The new median rate projection is 5.1%, implying one 25-basis-point (bp) rate cut in 2024, instead of the three 25-bp cuts estimated in the previous projections back in March. ...
- From scotiabank.com|Jun 12, 2024
Markets took back about half of this morning’s post-CPI rally (recap here) as the full set of FOMC communications worked through. Some of that cheapening occurred in response to the updated projections including the fresh dot plot, but more of it happened during the press conference. I think a reason for the latter effect is that this wasn’t Powell’s strongest press conference. What Markets Didn't Like: One key is that the Committee lowered its projection for rate cuts by more than most expected for this year (chart 1). The median ...
- From xm.com|Jun 12, 2024
The dollar dropped on Wednesday after data showed that consumer prices in May rose less than economists expected, but pared losses after updated interest rate projections by Federal Reserve officials showed an expectation for only one rate cut this year. The headline consumer price index (CPI) was flat on the month, below expectations for a 0.1% gain. Core prices rose by 0.2%, below economists' projections for a 0.3% increase. That bolstered expectations that the U.S. central bank will make two 25-basis-point rate cuts this year, ...
- From cnbc.com|Jun 12, 2024
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept its key interest rate unchanged and signaled that just one cut is expected before the end of the year. With markets hoping for a more accommodative central bank, Federal Open Market Committee policymakers following their two-day meeting took two rate reductions off the table from the three indicated in March. The committee also signaled that it believes the long-run interest rate is higher than previously indicated. New forecasts released after this week’s two-day meeting indicated slight ...
- From federalreserve.gov|Jun 12, 2024|10 comments
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 11–12, 2024, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2024 to 2026 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. post: FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’24 AT 5.1%; PREV. 4.6% FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’25 AT 4.1%; PREV. 3.9% FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST END-’26 AT 3.1%; PREV. 3.1% FED’S MEDIAN RATE FORECAST LONGER-RUN AT 2.8%; PREV. 2.6% post: FED POLICYMAKERS SEE END-2024 PCE INFLATION AT 2.6% VERSUS 2.4% IN MARCH PROJECTION; CORE SEEN AT 2.8% VERSUS 2.6% post: FED OFFICIALS RAISE 2024 INFLATION FORECAST TO 2.6%, UP FROM 2.4% IN MARCH FORECAST FED OFFICIALS SEE 4% UNEMPLOYMENT AT END OF 2024, UNCHANGED FROM MARCH FORECAST FED OFFICIALS SEE 2.1% GDP GROWTH IN 2024, UNCHANGED FROM MARCH FORECAST
- From edition.cnn.com|Jun 12, 2024
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates at a 23-year high for the seventh consecutive meeting on Wednesday and signal that it will cut rates this year fewer times than previously thought. Investors and other market observers will be paying close attention to Fed officials’ latest economic forecasts — known as the “dot plot.” Economists are widely expecting officials to pencil in one or two rate cuts this year, instead of the three they forecast in March. Their projections for inflation will also be an important clue ...
- From cnbc.com|Jun 11, 2024|2 comments
Wednesday is shaping up to be one of the most important days of the year for economic news, as investors will hear about the path of inflation and the manner in which the Federal Reserve plans to react. In a one-two punch that starts in the morning with the pivotal consumer price index reading for May and ends with the Fed’s policy meeting in the afternoon, vital signals will be sent about the direction of the economy and whether policymakers can soon take their foot off the brake. The day “packs months of macro risk into one day,” ...
Released on Jun 12, 2024 |
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