USD FOMC Member Kugler Speaks
Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy;
FOMC voting member Sep 2023 - Jan 2026;
- History
Expected Impact / Date | Description |
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Jun 18, 2024 | Due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, in Washington DC. Audience questions expected; |
May 18, 2024 | Due to deliver a commencement speech at the University of Virginia, in Charlottesville; |
Apr 4, 2024 | Due to speak about enriching data and analysis in economics with real life experiences at the Women in Economics Symposium, in St Louis; |
Apr 3, 2024 | Due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event hosted by Washington University in St. Louis. Audience questions expected; |
Mar 1, 2024 | Due to deliver a speech titled "Pursuing the Dual Mandate" at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Economic Summit, in California; |
Feb 7, 2024 | Due to speak about the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Brookings Institution, in Washington DC. Audience questions expected; |
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- USD FOMC Member Kugler Speaks News
- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Jun 18, 2024
A chorus of Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday emphasized the need for more evidence of cooling inflation before lowering interest rates, with a couple policymakers offering insight into the potential timing of such a move. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said it will likely be appropriate for the central bank to cut rates “sometime later this year” if economic conditions unfold as she anticipates. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said in his first major policy speech that it could take “quarters” for the data to support a cut. ...
- From federalreserve.gov|Jun 18, 2024
Thank you for your introduction, Adam, and thank you for the invitation to speak here today. It is great to come to Peterson to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy, which is my topic this afternoon.1 As I stand here today, inflation remains too high, but I am encouraged by the overall progress and trajectory. Recent data on the economy and inflation also give me cautious optimism that we are on track and making continued headway toward the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) inflation goal of 2 percent. That progress may have paused in the first three months of the year, but information since then on economic activity, the labor market, and inflation points to renewed progress. Over the last year through April, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation was 2.7 percent, down from 7.1 percent at its peak in 2022. Core PCE inflation—which excludes the volatile food and energy categories—was 2.8 percent through April, down from its peak of 5.6 percent. Based on consumer and producer price inflation for May released last week, I estimate that 12-month PCE inflation in May was a bit lower than in April. I was encouraged by some of the details of the recent reports, particularly the continued improvement in market-based services inflation, which is based on observation of actual market prices rather than imputed values. That's important because market-based prices are likely to be a better indication of the overall trend for core services inflation than nonmarket prices. Housing services inflation, meanwhile, continues to be persistent. Market rents for new tenant leases have already cooled significantly, but further progress in overall housing services inflation will rely on the ongoing pass-through of the previous market rents deceleration to the rents of existing tenants with expiring leases. So inflation is still too high, and further progress is likely to be gradual. However, there are several reasons why I remain optimistic that improving supply and cooling demand will support continued disinflation. The first reason I am optimistic about further progress on inflation has to do with declining price increases and even declining prices as consumers become more price sensitive. I think of this from several, related angles—I will mention a few. post: *FED'S KUGLER: LIKELY APPROPRIATE TO CUT RATES `LATER THIS YEAR' post: FED'S KUGLER: MONETARY POLICY IS SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS ARE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
- From federalreserve.gov|May 18, 2024
Thank you for your generous introduction, Dean Solomon, and thank you for the invitation to be here and share this special day with all of you. Let me begin by congratulating the Class of 2024. Let's give a huge round of applause to our graduates, who are all so deserving of being recognized. And let's clap our hands together and also congratulate the families and friends who are here, too, because—believe me, I know—it takes a village! So let's thank all those who supported you along the way and who made sure you had what you needed ...
- From federalreserve.gov|Apr 4, 2024
Thank you, President Musalem, and many congratulations on the start of your new position here at the St. Louis Fed. We are all so happy to have you as part of the Federal Reserve System, and I am grateful for the opportunity to speak here today.1 I will start with the issue that has brought us here—why it is so important for women to be a full and equitably represented part of the economics profession. There are, of course, moral reasons for economics to reflect the values of our democratic society—it is the right thing to do. But ...
- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Apr 3, 2024
Inflation could moderate further without a significant cost to jobs or economic growth this year, setting the stage for “some” cuts in borrowing costs, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler said. Weaker consumer spending should help slow economic growth to below last year’s 3.1% pace, Kugler said, and demand for workers is easing as well. “With demand growth cooling, given the backdrop of solid supply, my baseline expectation is that further disinflation can be accomplished without a significant rise in unemployment,” Kugler said ...
- From federalreserve.gov|Apr 3, 2024
Thank you, Andrew, and thank you for the opportunity to speak here today. I am very pleased to be talking here at the Weidenbaum Center. As an economist currently working on policy, but with a long trajectory in research, I particularly appreciate the center's multidisciplinary approach to building bridges between these two applications of economics. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been working to lower inflation in the context of our dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Today I will discuss economic developments in the U.S. and how I view the current stance of monetary policy in light of recent data and longer-run trends. Since I am an economist, you will not be surprised that I will talk about recent economic developments by highlighting the dynamics of supply and demand. As you all know, inflation began to rise in 2021. By mid-2022, 12-month inflation, based on the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, was around 7 percent—much too high and far above the FOMC's 2 percent longer-run objective. But since that time, PCE inflation has slowed significantly, declining to 5.4 percent at the end of 2022, then to 2.6 percent at the end of 2023, and then to 2.5 percent in February. Inflation can sometimes be hard to read from overall PCE inflation figures due to the volatility of food and energy prices. For that reason, it is sometimes helpful to focus on "core" PCE inflation, which excludes those categories and is a better guide to the direction of inflation. Core PCE inflation peaked at a rate above 5-1/2 percent in early 2022 but fell rapidly during 2023. In fact, the core PCE disinflation we saw last year was the fastest since the early 1980s. The progress has sometimes been bumpy from month to month, and, indeed, January and February of this year showed a bit of firming in the inflation data. But the January numbers, in particular, featured some atypical or seasonal factors that suggest a need to withhold judgment. The 12-month core PCE rate now stands at 2.8 percent. That rate represents considerable progress, but it is still meaningfully above the FOMC's 2 percent tar post: Fed’s Kugler: My Policy Rate Expectation is Consistent with March FOMC Meeting Policymaker Projections Fed’s Kugler: Policy is Currently Restrictive, and My Baseline Expectation is That Disinflation Will Continue Without a Broad Economic Slowdown post:
FED'S KUGLER: ANNUAL CORE PCE AT 2.8% REPRESENTS CONSIDERABLE PROGRESS BUT IS STILL MEANINGFULLY ABOVE THE FED'S 2% TARGET.
- From federalreserve.gov|Mar 1, 2024
Thank you, Mark, and thank you for the opportunity to be part of the discussions today.1 For more than 40 years, the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research has assisted economic policymakers by producing sharp analysis and fostering the kind of constructive dialogue reflected in today's agenda. My topic today is the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of maximum employment and stable prices—and, specifically, the tradeoffs that sometimes arise when pursuing these two objectives. I say "sometimes" because there have been times and certain economic conditions in which such tradeoffs did not arise—or at least were not apparent. This distinction is an important one, especially when considering the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s recent progress in reducing high inflation while the labor market has remained strong. Better understanding the tradeoffs, or lack thereof, in pursuing the dual mandate will help researchers and policymakers draw lessons from these welcome recent developments. post: Fed’s Kugler: Optimistic Disinflation Progress Will Continue
- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Feb 7, 2024|2 comments
Four Fed officials suggested Wednesday they don’t see an urgent case for lowering interest rates, adding to a roster of policymakers in recent days who made clear a cut isn’t likely until May at the earliest. Governor Adriana Kugler, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari and Richmond’s Thomas Barkin were all noncommittal on when the US central bank can start reducing the Fed’s benchmark lending rate from a two-decade high, despite a marked improvement in inflation last year. The remarks largely echo ...
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