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The Shine May Come Off Canada’s Economy in Q3 While US Inflationary Pressures Accelerate
Canada’s economy performed very well over 2022H1 but may be poised for a moderation into Q3 (charts 1, 2). The way the GDP math works points to a loss of the running head start into Q3 compared to the early advantage that Q1 and Q2 GDP growth enjoyed. With huge cautions given that it’s a highly preliminary argument, it may be that the shine is about to come off Canadian GDP growth into the third quarter. charts Because US data exceeded consensus expectations (see below), the mildly better than expected Canadian GDP figures were shaken off by USDCAD that barely budged. The US front-end is underperforming ... (full story)