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A Hard or Soft Landing? The Answer May Lie in the Beveridge Curve
As the Federal Reserve continues its efforts to curb high inflation, there has been debate among economists over the past year on whether the U.S. is headed for a recession. In July 2022, Andrew Figura and Federal Reserve Gov. Chris Waller posited that the Fed can continue bringing down inflation without causing unemployment to rise so much that it significantly slows down economic activity. Olivier Blanchard, Alex Domash and Lawrence Summers, on the other hand, argued that a significant increase in unemployment is necessary for taming inflation; in their view, a soft landing was highly unlikely. Both analyses looked ... (full story)
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Thank you. Whenever I get such a warm welcome, I always say to myself, "Waller, they really aren't here for you or your sparkling personality. They're here for your outlook."1 Which is fine, because accurately communicating my economic outlook is an important part of my job. Tonight, in addition to providing new information about my outlook based on new data, I also want to clarify my views on how the economy has been operating over time and my view of appropriate monetary policy. Doing so can help the public anticipate how I will react to new developments, not just at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), but further into the future. That's crucial, because monetary policy works mostly by influencing the public's view of financial and economic conditions well into the future, affecting spending and investment decisions. Whether I say so or not, every time I speak, I am trying to better explain how and why I make policy decisions. My plan is to cover three issues. First, by looking over the past few FOMC meetings, I want to describe how my outlook has been shaped by both economic data and uncertainty—what we have learned at each point and what we don't yet know about the economy. Second, I will discuss how I think about lags with which policy affects economic activity and inflation and the impact on the appropriate path of policy. And third, I will review the recent data and discuss how I see policy evolving over the remainder of this year. post at 6:45pm: FED’S WALLER: JOBS, ECONOMIC STRENGTH GIVE FED SPACE TO HIKE FURTHER #News #Markets #FED #ECONOMIC #live post at 6:54pm: Fed's Waller: Favours Raising Rates At July FOMC Meeting - Likely To Need Two More 25Bp Rate Hikes This Year post at 6:52pm: FED'S WALLER: INFLATION HAS PREVIOUSLY EXHIBITED FALSE DAWNS.
Euro rallies to its highest level since February 2022. Todd Colvin examines.
The USD/JPY extended its losses for the sixth consecutive trading session and broke to a new two-month low of 137.92 on speculations the US Federal Reserve would hike in July to ...
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Following a benign CPI release Wednesday, the June PPI release also came in softer than expected this morning (and initial claims fell), sparking calls for "mission accomplished" ...
post at 7:44pm: Australian Govt Appoints Michele Bullock As Next RBA Governor $AUDUSDAppointment of Reserve Bank Governor The Treasurer, the Hon Dr Jim Chalmers MP, has appointed Michele Bullock as Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia for a seven-year term commencing 18 September 2023. Governor Philip Lowe said: ‘The Treasurer has made a first-rate appointment. I congratulate Michele on being appointed Governor. The Reserve Bank is in very good hands as it deals with the current inflation challenge and implementing the recommendations of the Review of the RBA. I wish Michele all the best.’ The role of Reserve Bank Governor comes with several responsibilities, including Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, the Payments System Board and the Council of Financial Regulators. As Governor, Ms Bullock will also be responsible for the management of the Bank under the Reserve Bank Act 1959. Following the Treasurer’s announcement, Deputy Governor Michele Bullock said: ‘I am deeply honoured to have been appointed to this important position. It is a challenging time to be coming into this role, but I will be supported by a strong executive team and boards. I am committed to ensuring that the Reserve Bank delivers on its policy and operational objectives for the benefit of the Australian people.’ Governor Lowe will continue in his position until the end of his term on 17 September 2023. The position of Deputy Governor from 18 September 2023 will be filled by the Treasurer in due course.
Most Latin American currencies rose against a weak dollar on Thursday after slowing U.S. inflation signaled a faster farewell to the U.S. rate-hiking cycle, while Argentina's peso ...
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- Posted: Jul 13, 2023 6:51pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,779