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US production boosts case for 4% GDP growth
The US ISM manufacturing index has improved to 49.0 from 47.6 (consensus 47.9), although we have to remember it remains below 50, thereby indicating the sector continues to contract, albeit at a slower pace than last month. Furthermore, we have to remember that this is the 11th consecutive sub 50 reading so looking at it cumulatively we are at pretty weak levels of activity. Nonetheless, there are areas of very positive news with the details showing production actually broke above 50 to stand at 52.5, which is the best reading since July 2022 while employment also posted positive growth with an index level of 51.2 ... (full story)
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- From @DeItaone|Oct 2, 2023
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FED'S HARKER SAYS FED WORKING ON STABLE PRICES, MAXIMUM EMPLOYMENT
- From tickmill.com|Oct 2, 2023
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- From bnnbloomberg.ca|Oct 2, 2023|2 comments
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman again said that multiple interest-rate hikes may be required to get inflation down to the central bank’s goal even after data for August ...
- From federalreserve.gov|Oct 2, 2023
Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you. I would like to talk with you today about the intersection of my two roles at the Federal Reserve as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve Board and as a member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).1 In particular, I'll focus on the interaction of monetary policy and financial stability policy. First, my views on current monetary policy. I am squarely focused on our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. I strongly agree with the point that Chair Powell has made often, which is that without price stability, the economy does not work for anyone. Price stability is crucial to achieving a sustained period of strong labor market conditions that benefit all. I joined the FOMC last year at a time when the headline CPI inflation was peaking at about 9 percent, and we had begun our policy response. There has been a lot of progress since tightening the stance of policy began last year. In August, the 12-month change in CPI inflation was about 3-3/4 percent. The Committee has raised the federal funds rate 5-1/4 percentage points while also reducing the Fed's securities holdings by about $1 trillion. Our strong measures have ensured that inflation expectations remain well anchored. While inflation has been moderating, incoming data on economic activity have shown considerably more resilience than I had expected. We are being helped by improvements in supply. I now see a higher probability than I did previously of the U.S. economy achieving a return to price stability without the degree of job losses that have typically accompanied significant monetary policy tightening cycles. However, the historical record cautions that this outcome could be quite difficult to achieve. Of course, the labor market is tight and the data show that employment continued to expand through August, but incoming data also suggest we are making progress on bringing labor demand and supply back into better balance. Job growth has moderated while labor force participation has continued to improve. Immigration has increased, and job vacancies have moved down toward a more normal level. My baseline projection is for real GDP growth to moderate to somewhat below its poten post: Fed's Barr: Most Important Question Is How Long Rates Stay High -Agree With Powell We Can Proceed Carefully On Rates
- From youtube.com/markets|Oct 2, 2023|2 comments
Jordan Rochester of Nomura says Euro-Dollar could reach and even break through parity. "It is a bit of deja vu to last year," he said on "Bloomberg Surveillance."
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- Posted: Oct 2, 2023 12:10pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 3,702
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