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Why the Bank of England won’t be an outlier with rate cuts in 2024
Financial markets have significantly ramped up bets for 2024 rate cuts over recent weeks. But what's striking is that investors still expect the Bank of England to start rate cuts later and cut less aggressively overall than the European Central Bank or Federal Reserve. Admittedly, this divergence has narrowed after some encouraging wage figures and poor GDP numbers this week. Even so, investors are pricing a little over three UK cuts for next year starting in June, compared to five at the ECB starting in May. All of this resurfaces memories of last summer, where investors widely thought the UK had a worse inflation ... (full story)
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- From federalreserve.gov|Dec 13, 2023|17 comments
Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has slowed from its strong pace in the third quarter. Job gains have moderated since earlier in the year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Adriana D. Kugler; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller. post: FOMC STATEMENT COMPARE pic.twitter.com/5qtTLhfoeR post:
FED: THE FOMC VOTE WAS UNANIMOUS.
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- Posted: Dec 13, 2023 12:14pm
- Submitted by:Category: Fundamental AnalysisComments: 0 / Views: 2,613