-
The Forward View – Australia: February 2024
We continue to see an environment of subdued activity in the near term with the RBA set to keep the cash rate on hold at 4.35% until November 2024. We expect the upcoming National Accounts release to show GDP growth of 1.4% y/y for 2023 – materially below trend but avoiding the worst-case outcomes that might have been expected to accompany a rapid tightening of monetary policy. Strong population growth has been a key support, with per capita GDP contracting materially over the year. Growth is expected to improve slightly in 2024 but remain below trend, before improving to over 2% in 2025. Household consumption will ... (full story)