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- SFundamental replied Jul 30, 2023
We have had a b shape on volume/market profile GU on Friday after a down move - and that usually is bullish. Unfortunately- banks are bearish - and just had a look at options pricing for Monday - pretty negative. Had a quick check their does not ...
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- SFundamental replied Jul 30, 2023
Fundamentals are abstract -you have to think like a market maker Macro for next week: US employment forecast figures for next week - look weak. Fed has talked about being data dependant-so lets see Although PMIs seem better. BOE likely to hike- in ...
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- SFundamental replied Jul 30, 2023
This is a retail forum- posters are not going to know much. It is what it is. Happy to talk about fundamentals if that is of any interest.
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- SFundamental replied Jul 24, 2023
Cable's only chance of hope - is for a dovish FOMC Europe is in a complete mess- Lagarde is so out of her depth.
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- SFundamental replied Jul 24, 2023
Nice start....120 pips! UK PMIs - contracting speeding up EU PMI- shocking Lots of bits and bobs Aussie CPI FOMC ECB BOJ Fed: 25 hike well priced in. There are certain factors that are supportive of higher interest rates - oil being one- but that is ...
Fundamental Trading Journal
- SFundamental replied Jul 22, 2023
Some longer term trades that I am looking at. Short GBPNZD- Structure and 10 year spreads - indicate a sell. Macro - Dairy Index forecasting growth over the remainder of the year & UK inflation dropping faster than expected
Fundamental Trading Journal
- SFundamental replied Jul 18, 2023
____________________________________________________________________________________ Hit 1.30 on CPI data release!
Fundamental Trading Journal
- SFundamental replied Jul 10, 2023
UPDATE: Cable off- nice divergent value - got some. But yields!!! Structurally - it looks as though it has further to go. Huge risk though of Cable getting above 1.30 Think that this is going to be due to US CPI data- ...
Fundamental Trading Journal
- SFundamental replied Jul 9, 2023
Looking at options pricing though on Friday - not that great Puts more expensive on the Pound 10 yr spreads turned south on Friday 50/50 on Gold-1950 will get defended though Also on the Friday close - price rallied- seems a bit bearish to me. ...
Fundamental Trading Journal
- SFundamental replied Jul 9, 2023
All I am thinking atm is long Gold and short equities a) BRICS new currency- being announced in August b) Yen - currency intervention/inflation outlook - at the end of the month. c) Low US inflation figures this week- core is finally moving south. ...
Fundamental Trading Journal
- SFundamental replied Jun 30, 2023
For me Gold should be a short- perhaps lower PCE estimate acting as a support But everything else- real yields etc... is screaming south Gold was bullish in the NY session despite real yields- so there is obviously buying going on somewhere Maybe ...
Gold
- SFundamental replied Jun 21, 2023
I know Gold is low - but is anyone going to be long Gold after the chair of the Fed was talking up interest rates Perhaps I am missing something
Gold
- SFundamental replied Jun 18, 2023
All eyes are going to on UK inflation data on Wednesday. Until then volatility I would expect would likely to be muted/perhaps some more long covering. Looking at SONIA - I can only see another 50 bp hike this year and the sovereign credit markets ...
Fundamental Trading Journal
- SFundamental replied Jun 18, 2023
Liquidity in the strictest sense of the word- means the number of limit orders each side of the bid offer spread. If there is a lot - this means its a thick market (and vice versa) for thin. Thick markets would be something like bonds (typically the ...
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- SFundamental replied Jun 8, 2023
Mini trade agreement between the US and the UK - will always boost the pound- hence the move today The UK is seen more as a safe haven. Thing is the UK has a strong banking system- Europe and the US both have had issues further helping the pound. ...
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- SFundamental replied Jun 5, 2023
Problem is the breakeven price on Crude is circa $65.7 a barrel for SA- hence their need for a high price of oil Saudi Arabia: breakeven oil price by account 2000-2022 | Statista
Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- SFundamental replied Jun 5, 2023
Decent NFP headlines followed by this...... Yields took a beatin... scramble to the Euro and Yen
Cable Update (GBPUSD)