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- foto commented Sep 5, 2023
One currency that will be unable to cope with any further loss of purchasing power for energy would be JPY. Higher energy costs virtually assures consumer demand destruction for everyone else.
- foto commented Sep 2, 2023
[quote=axecap;14560060] What would you suggest as a timing mechanism then? I use a form of Hurst cycles, plus attempting to judge where market sentiment has taken things to extremes which is a behavioral approach to markets. Others rely upon simple ...
- foto commented Sep 1, 2023
Today's move was about USD. As it strengthened across the board EURO and others fell as well. So even if JPY got weaker so did Euro etc. Therefore there was little movement outside of USD/JPY. Cad/JPY did a bounce after strong selloff but it was ...
- foto commented Sep 1, 2023
Everyone's busy but don't ignore Cad. Weakened again and revision downwards on prior GDP data. CAD/JPY weekly has double top formation in the works. Daily just broke sharply out of a consolidation. Lot of downside potential in pair from Canada ...
- foto commented Aug 31, 2023
Is that Biden or Peters ?
- foto commented Aug 31, 2023
Real DPI decreased .2% in July Real PCE increased .6% in July Consumer still going backwards. Covering shortfall in purchasing power with debt or cutting back via lowering quality of Life. This is not a prosperous economy.
- foto commented Aug 30, 2023
As China is finding out comes a point where tweaking stimulus is no longer sufficient. People are turning aside and starting to hunker down. Market will knee jerk risk on, based upon perception of pivot. It will take more then a tweak to restart ...
- foto commented Aug 29, 2023
Here is where things go interesting. Stagnation in Asia, Europe, North America. How wonderful, global synchronized stagnation setting in. Accompanied by stubborn inflation. CB's in no position to hit the gas, so do markets go risk off or do they ...
- foto commented Aug 29, 2023
Germany remains the engine for Euro. With a weakening exporters market (China demand is questionable, far too much debt). Europe being slammed by high energy cost from Green policies. Higher rents as Germans are renters more then owners and subject ...
- foto commented Aug 27, 2023
ww3361 you have done a good job with this. As long as debt based growth remains the model engine producing economic nominal growth CB's are going to intervene. Their past interventions consistently ended up favoring those who are first in line at ...
- foto commented Aug 26, 2023
What I outline is the economic surround for a market based upon what was just gone through this week past. The biggest question I ask before a trade gets placed is this a trade based upon Risk on or Risk off. Unless one trades fully hedged which is ...
- foto commented Aug 26, 2023
Would add one more thought. Let's say Fed is giving a party to kick off recovery from a slump. Invites go out, free booze and food to be had at Eccles bldg. Come as you are. Upon arrival a drink is there on a platter at entry. Alongside of that ...
- foto commented Aug 26, 2023
Will flesh the idea out and keep it simple. The reason CB's choose such an arbitrary number like 2% inflation as an inflation target mandate has to do with the rate of devaluation of a currency. 2% devalues at a pace that allows an populous to ...
- foto commented Aug 25, 2023
Message from both Powell and now Lagarde to firms is bailouts not such a sure thing. De-Risk or go bust. Firms have risk management and that would address exposure which in turn affects allocation models. Will take couple days to see if there would ...
- foto commented Aug 25, 2023
If market does start to reassess risk parameters the JPY carry trade is vulnerable. It has been a sure thing trade for some time.
- foto commented Aug 25, 2023
You express this situation better. This is why so much bidding has taken place as no one understands there is a potential for downside. It has been all one sided far too long, which contributes to inflation expectations. I prefer to sit with some ...
- foto commented Aug 25, 2023
"Policy rate restrictive, but Fed can't be certain what neutral level is" Well if they do not have a level where neutral is, they certainly do not know where to pivot. Fed is reintroducing Risk into markets and have removed the Fed Put. Fed Put ...
- foto commented Aug 25, 2023
Wish to thank all of you Orange man bad people. Did not know what would finally wake America up that the country was getting stolen by stealth and enriching the few. People are now coming to their senses and the push back is gaining strength every ...
- foto commented Aug 24, 2023
Yep. That all seeing Fed eyeball is infallible. Track record proves it.
- foto commented Aug 24, 2023
Most likely a couple more of these speakers, laying the groundwork for anticlimactic Powell. Still pushing that line of a soft landing with minimal pain as goal. Market continues to buy into it. The outlier will be a change in perception, that being ...