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- chucklots replied Oct 21, 2013
After awhile of trading, I've learned that trading is mostly about exits. That and the tape doesn't lie, trade what you see. Oh, and trends are real, especially in high leverage products. I am not trading to be the most intelligent guy in this game ...
- chucklots replied Oct 21, 2013
Looks like it is failing here at the highs. Options market showing small downside bias as well. Stops below 97.50. For a buy I'd be looking for a test of 97.00-20 first.
- chucklots replied Oct 21, 2013
AUD/USD looking to take out 9700-9750.
- chucklots replied Oct 21, 2013
USD/JPY was bid on talk again of Japanese semi-governmental entities buying at Friday’s low and still on the bid at 97.50. If we don't get a move above 98 I expect specs front running this to close out and get another test of the lows. NFP Tues, so ...
- chucklots replied Oct 19, 2013
Off topic, but you know why the really good older Russian programmers were/are so good? It's not because of IQ... It's because they had very limited access to computers, so they had to have it all in their heads, which consequently made them write ...
- chucklots replied Oct 19, 2013
You have to have contacts at these banks, better yet hedge funds. They hang out and chat on bloomberg, but that doesn't mean you get to chat with them. Having these terminals will not do much for the average retail guy. By this, you mean prop ...
- chucklots replied Oct 18, 2013
Drop to 3650 here, EUR/AUD looks like a better short.
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Yes. It is done both with using other options and dynamically on the underlying spot/futures. hedging can still be done on binaries, also can be used to structure synthetically. Vol traders I can barely understand it is pretty out there to me, but I ...
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
That's great you're trying to help others, but you make no sense from where I'm sitting. I am trying to grasp what your saying but it's just nonsense. I said lets keep this thread on topic but you insist on pushing the fact that you were a risk ...
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Gambling is what he is doing, with horrible R/R.
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
what you do is wait for the "large expiry" to expire as you can expect chop if nothing else is going on. vega = volatility, in terms of options risks. You still haven't answered the important questions I had in my last post. You were trading ...
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Yes they are complex and I am not an options trader, but I know enough to know that what you are saying you do/did, will not work. What is the R/R and payouts on these? Did you hedge these trades? And theta (time decay) works against you when you're ...
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Come on man, stop it.
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Yes USD is taking quite the beating. AUD has been pretty much the strongest currency lately, with this rally makes me think we see highs in equity indices here, but futures haven't moved much overnight. I think many are positioned for weak USD data ...
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
That is one hell of a model you have yourself there srmfx. Options pricing depends on volatility. You know there is more than one type of volatility, and there are more variables that go into it. I'm not sure what you mean when you say "I don't ...
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Excuse me srmfx, it's hard to follow you. Where are you trading daily vanillas? Options pricing does not simply depend on 30-40 pip ranges before NY cut. This is simple fact.
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Correct. Forget about it... just a gamble with a large edge-loss for the most part. There is a few places for non US residents for weekly exotics that are priced good. CME is your best bet otherwise for retail level FX options.
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Ok I see. Not the greatest strategy either way. Is this for day trades? News also comes out around and before so it seems like a bad time for any edge on long strangles on a day trade (which I am assuming you meant).
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
Nadex, not really they offer digitals and bull spreads. Best to use CME on futures or ETF's I guess. Either way 1-2 hour short strangles? Can't see that ending well.
- chucklots replied Oct 17, 2013
straight up and down USD beating. Can't say this is a risk-on move though... i'd look to fade this.