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Kashkari: Policy Has Tightened a Lot. How Tight Is It?
On May 6, 2022, I first published an essay explaining why I focus on long-term real rates to evaluate the overall stance of monetary policy, which includes effects from both the setting of the federal funds rate and changes to the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. Please see that essay for a discussion of why long-term real rates drive economic activity rather than short rates or nominal rates. On June 17, 2022, and September 26, 2023, I published updates to reflect actions by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to tighten policy in order to bring inflation back to our target. This essay is an update to those ... (full story)
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KASHKARI SAYS DATA ON ECONOMY ARE NOT “UNAMBIGUOUSLY POSITIVE,” WITH SOME SIGNS OF WEAKNESS INCLUDING RISING CONSUMER DELINQUENCIES
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 5, 2024
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FED’S KASHKARI: POSSIBLY HIGHER NEUTRAL RATE MEANS FED CAN TAKE MORE TIME TO ASSESS UPCOMING DATA BEFORE BEGINNING RATE CUTS WITH “LESS RISK” TO THE RECOVERY; HIGHER NEUTRAL RATE MEANS MONETARY POLICY MAY NOT BE AS TIGHT AS THOUGHT
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 5, 2024
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