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Week Ahead: FOMC, BOJ, and US and China Inflation
The market got caught leaning the wrong way. The weakness in April's high-frequency US data encouraged participants to push the US two-year yield to its recent floor near 4.70% and took the 10-year yield to two-month lows, slightly above 4.25%. The Dollar Index was driven below the uptrend line drawn off the December 2023 and March and May 2024 lows. We have argued that while the US economy is slowing, the April data seemed to overstate the case, and the May jobs data will likely set the broad tone of other real sector data. The Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker had slipped to 1.8% as of June 3. But between last Thursday and ... (full story)