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Did Goldman Just Call The Top Of The "Strong Dollar" Trade
It is perhaps ironic that two days after Goldman Sachs, on Friday evening, acknowledged that hopes for a June rate hike by the Fed have now been dashed... Primarily because of our below-consensus inflation call, we continue to expect a later-than-consensus first hike. As Exhibit 8 shows, most forecasters continue to expect a first hike in June, in line with the clustering of Fed officials around “mid-2015” as a likely liftoff date. Our baseline remains September, and we view the risks as increasingly skewed to the later side. If core inflation falls as low as 1%, we think that the liftoff would probably move into ... (full story)
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