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About That First Quarter GDP 3.2% Surprise
Real GDP rose 3.2% in the first quarter aided by a questionable measure of inflation. The BEA’s Advance Estimate of First Quarter 2019 GDP is 3.2%. The Bureau’s first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The “second” estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2019. The increase in real GDP in the first quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, state and local government spending, and ... (full story)