DislikedGBP/JPY: Price has fallen in between the 20 and 50, signalling indecision and lack of direction. With 2 hours left until close, this candle will most likely close as a hammer, or piercing line, or even a bullish engulfing, signalling bullish sentiment. Price was supported near the low of the 300 pip wick by the 50, and is also right on top of BOSS 20. Volume is already substantially higher than that of the last candle which means more traders stepped in with sufficient strength to put a stop to the bear raid. Fib retracements from the Feb 12th to...Ignored
Best analysis so far - congratulations and very well done!
Just a few minor points if I may:
"Price was supported near the low of the 300 pip wick by the 50, and is also right on top of BOSS 20." AND major resistance at 132.00 giving us confluence of support.
"The long entry order would be placed above 136.60." This is a good entry for using the hammer as your signal bar but you might want to go 10 or so pips above it to try and get out of some of the noise around that high. HOWEVER, I will not put an order there and not yet - Why? Because there is a wall of resistance above it - the 20 - you would be trading directly into resistance - a very high risk trade! My trade will not go until I see a STRONG close above the 20. Then once in the trade we need to monitor it closely - the daily is fighting with it's BOSS and we know who USUALLY wins - don't we?
There is only one thing that is not right - the SL. It should go at least below the low of your set up bar. Yes it is a big SL but if you can't afford it then don't take the trade. Many times, IBs are formed after these bars and that would wipe out your SL as would a Stop Run. So YES, you DO WANT to put it where YOU don't want to put it (if you don't you are fooling yourself).
"Please correct me if this analysis was way out of the ballpark." - WAY OUT - HOME RUN!!!!!!!
A big clue to the USDJPY HUGE problem is staring you in the face on this one also.
Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!