Just kidding!
Wanted to thank you for the link to the spaghetti indicator.
Comparing relative strength between currencies?
That's what I call better than coins, darts, astrology or even
my magic eight ball!
50% win ratio, 1:1 sl tp, and random entries 127 replies
The Art of Coin Tossing 45 replies
Pure Risk to reward trade System - 1 to 3- Totally random entries 178 replies
Expert Advisor with random entries 3 replies
Random entries discussion... 7 replies
DislikedIt's possible that our concept of black swans differs. The only book of Taleb's that I've read is Fooled By Randomness, and it was a long time ago. I see a black swan as something so unlikely that it defies any kind of testing, and wouldn't be worth tampering with my setups to try to factor it in. If I miss an out-of-the-blue, once-in-a-decade move, then so be it. But of course no two people approach trading in exactly the same way.
I use at least three different entry setups that give me a significant positive bias. I can't say conclusively...Ignored
DislikedYou haven't specifically stated where you enter or exit, so I've assumed that you enter at the day's open, and exit (if not stopped out) at the day's close.
Depending on your SL placement, you could have been stopped out on Tuesday also, and thus incurred losses on both days.
IMHO, the flaw in your logic is that you're ascribing a 50% probability to a 'small loss' or a 'big profit'. That is not necessarily so. Everything else being equal, RR and win rate operate in inverse proportion to each other. Trying to cut losses and let profits run will...Ignored
DislikedI am not ascribing any probability. If price moves in my favor, more often than not, based on historical data, it will move 50 pips or more when trading the major pairs.Ignored
DislikedAt the end of the day, profit is the only real goal. Given that each of us starts with a blank canvas, there are doubtless several different ways of achieving this. In that sense, trading is a subjective process, and nobody is necessarily right or wrong. If I may speak generally, one of the tendencies in this forum is for folk to believe that their own way is the only profitable way to trade. Which is nonsense, of course. I hope that I haven't given that impression.Ignored
DislikedFor instance, if price is above some moving average then you have a statistical edge by only taking long entries. If you buy at the open of every 4 hour bar that's above the EMA 20 and close the trade at the bar's close, you have a 60% chance of a winning trade. It's as simple as that.Ignored
DislikedRandom coin-toss entries have an academic interest and are a valuable learning exercise....Ignored
DislikedJohnny Come Lately tells me they back-tested my method and it doesn't work even though I have been using it profitably for years.Ignored
Dislikedhttp://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=213145
Quote: "After studying for most of 2009, I am about to embark on real live trading."Ignored
Dislikedi just made an ea to test your theory. attaced pics are a balance curve of trade buy above ema 20 /sell below ema 20 and the reverse logic (buy below ema, sell above ema). the first strats produce 45% profit trade, the second produce... not 55%... but 46%. that caused by spread..Ignored
QuoteDislikedIf you buy at the open of every 4 hour bar that's above the EMA 20 and close the trade at the bar's close, you have a 60% chance of a winning trade.
Dislikedhmmm, not sure if i interprets your rules correctly. but this is ea that i made to testIgnored
Dislikedhmmm, not sure if i interprets your rules correctly. but this is ea that i made to testIgnored
DislikedNope, you did it wrong. Buy at the new bar's open and sell at that bar's close above the EMA 20. Sell at the new bar's open and buy at that bar's close below the EMA 20. No stop loss, no take profit.
But that wasn't the point of my comments anyway. I didn't propose a trading system. I was pointing out a statistical behavior that could be incorporated into a trading system.Ignored