Hello vlady. Well, I was really convinced that we need a more pronounced retrace up before anything significant happens below 1.31, but obviously I got it wrong. I never thought that setiment and fundamentals are changed, but rather i spotted arbitrage opportunities that are right much more often than not. For example, that occurrence that gave me signal for 1.3180 before any strong down move is right much more often than not, I would say at least 97% of time based on historical data. Problem is as eurusdd said, that rare events do happen. Especially in the past few weeks. From technical perspective, we needed a retracement. That downtrend from may ECB has been going without any significant counter-wave movement and such one way market is i must say an exception. More often than not, when there are too many on the train, it has to get back and shake some off, before continuing. But it seems that it was a lot more powerful than many expected. You see that even eurusdd that has very good record, has made not one, but two serious mistakes only in the past weeks. He has more sophisticated methods and knows wen things are going wrong, but its not that case with me. I have a way of getting optimal targets, but have absolutely no idea when the 3% chance is going to strike.... Anyways.. On my analysis now I see 2 levels that need to be revisited to the upside - these are 1.3140 and 1.3180. Before that we may once again hit the bottom 1.2930 and under. Market has been acting strange and there is an accumulation of low probability events one after another. So I stil think that we may see a very strong corrective upmove sometimes sone. I am speaking from statistical perspective and my own analysis , which is very far from perfect. But I am not good with fundamentals and last few weeks that played me a huge trick.. I refused to look for continuation of the bearish move before a technical correction ![](https://resources.faireconomy.media/images/emojis/64/1f612.png?v=15.1)
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