DislikedThe yen goes ape sh*t on my yen short, but luckily it went down again. So I’m out with more than 90% of the breakout profit being taken away. I don’t like what I see, so I’m done this week and early next week. See ya but before that for those who want to make quick buck on the news…
Yesterday got red alert ADP report (they said the correlation of the ADP with the actual government one is almost 0.9 correlations) which could be useful to gauge the BLS final net revision later (non-farm unemployment change). The last time it was a big hit but this time don’t know maybe because of overestimation by ADP. ADP does not have many words and few beautiful graphs (don’t believe me look at it yourself), so easy to read. Cuma one thing, its may not sufficient to just look at the changes from Nov 2007 – Dec 2007. So I suggest to also have a look at the total number of total non-farm private, what’s the trend for the last 6 months. Normally more 150K for few months pictures a strong economy and can lead to firming of US rates but figure less than 100K suggesting economy is weakening. Then to get further idea, tengok hiring activity at goods producing, services are no.2, not so helpful. Pay a little bit attention at small and medium size good producers as these people are more nimble compared to large companies when it comes to hiring/layoff. Maybe this will give some idea when using employment pattern as leading indicator to see turning point in US economy (NFP paling penting). Again, better ask other people that are better and more well-verse in this matter as I am not an economist/fundamentalist or etc. I am just sharing some knowledge I picked up from friends etc. I hope this help.
Can get the report here - http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/report_analysis.aspx
regards.
p/s: salam kpd sifu²/otai, minta maaf, i just want to share, not more than that.
Ignored
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Monthly Profit & Lost :-
May - +85 pips