Quoting itmeDislikedDear Nicolas,
I haven't bothered calculating the percentage of winning trades for several reasons. Mostly, because it is irrelevant to my purpose, which is to experiment and learn. Second, because it would be misleading if done crudely. I would need to distinguish between winning and losing trades according to which are consistent with my current protocol, and which aren't. There are two issues - the performance of my system, and my performance at executing my system. And my system is constantly evolving. Also there are near misses, where the stop is barely hit, or the target is almost met, or the entry is just missed, but the target is hit, and the trades where the concept is totally incorrect.
Last, and most important, if I posted the "performance" of my research project, then it might encourage people to either dismiss the concept altogether of low risk / high reward trading employing trend reversal prediction techniques, or inspire unwarranted confidence and cause people to trade these "signals" indiscriminately with real money, even though the system and my skill are still evolving.
Lastly, percentage of winning trades is only one of several criteria pertinent to the effectiveness of a trading system. Reward : risk ratio, win rate, distribution of losses, duration of trades, and frequency of trade opportunities are all pertinent. To assess the performance of a trading system, the results would need to be entered into an excel spreadsheet to compound the results. A low risk / high reward trading system can be deceptively profitable even with a quite low percentage of wins.Ignored
Can you please post some elliot wave study material....
Thanks