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The Chonchy
Walk the Talk from a fun loving discretionary trader 46 replies
You talk the talk I walk the talk 8 replies
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Dislikedhi,
depends what the news is tomorrow......the bet is Mervyn King is signaling a coordinated and fairly massive central bank intervention with the caveat that it is likely to be promised in stages imo.
if King is thrown under the bus tomorrow and the FED does not come with some expansion of stimulus then the market may sell off
the odds are the whole G20/10 FED BOJ BOE ECB and whatever is part bluff and part real so there may probably be some whipsaws until the market prices the FOMC statement, and decides a bias.
the odds are also that...Ignored
DislikedHello Gentleman..I didn't read the beginning of this thread so if there are posting restrictions I appolgize...yummy to all the women posted here...well done...I have a trade going on... wanted to get some feedback...going on the buy the rumor sell news thing...what do you guys think...anyone that posts the kind of kitty kats that you guys do can't be to bad...
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DislikedBohogirl was good fun on this thread. We were all so shocked we had a woman on the thread we bored her by being too polite I think.Ignored
DislikedYou're welcome. Posting restrictions? Hmm. I'm surprised no one here's been arrested yet - that's all. I think we may even be allowed to post charts for what it's worth. I only post simple ones that even I can understand. Condor tells me fundamentals are more important than technicals at the moment but I say rolll on 1.19:
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DislikedHello Gentleman..I didn't read the beginning of this thread so if there are posting restrictions I appolgize...yummy to all the women posted here...well done...I have a trade going on... wanted to get some feedback...going on the buy the rumor sell news thing...what do you guys think...anyone that posts the kind of kitty kats that you guys do can't be to bad...
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Disliked.....besides central bankers are part banker and more part politician so being bought comes quite naturally.Ignored
So you see, the bond market actually does better (same was true during QE1) without the Fed balance sheet expansion than with it. Why? Because the Fed’s real goal is to ignite investor risk appetite. Bernanke et all have not kept it a secret that the real aim of the QEs is to generate a liquidity-induced rally in the equity market. If bond yields end up rising as they have for most of the past six months but occurs with a rising stock market and greater economic strength, then the Fed is totally cool with that and again Mr. Bernanke has stated that very bluntly (even if the higher mortgage rates that ensue drive another knife into the heart of the housing market). When the Fed stops QE, as we saw last year, risk appetite fades and the economy sputters — a development that will likely be even more acute this time around given the accelerating fiscal restraint at all levels of government that is just around the corner.
So who buys the bonds when Ben leaves the building?
The same folks who were the buyers last year from April to August. The ones who were switching out of equities, commodities, and other risk-assets.
Now you know how to play the second half of the year!
DislikedShould the US approach June 30 and end up with the highly improbable scenario where there is no follow through monetization, which following Bill Gross' commentary from yesterday (which in turn piggy backs on what we have been saying for months - monetizing of gross issuance and all that) appears unlikely, what would happen to risk, and other, assets? Providing empirical color to that eventuality, which with every passing day is ever more urgent, is David Rosenberg who answers the question: "What happens if there is no QE3?"
We are now...Ignored
Disliked"What happens if there is no QE3?"
We are now being asked this constantly and the follow-up is “who picks up the slack if the Fed stops its bond-buying program”?
The answer(s) is hardly complicated since we have a template for this in 2010. It is a very simple guidepost.
So who buys the bonds when Ben leaves the building?
The same folks who were the buyers last year from April to August. The ones who were switching out of equities, commodities, and other risk-assets.
Now you know how to play the second half of the year!Ignored