Guys,
I do not mean this to be negative, I am a new trader and been having okay results, so far..just worried we are picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, this is not a shot at this method, but simply the retail trading world.
Where is our "edge" and who is on the other side of our trades? This is zero sum, we win, somebody loses, we lose, somebody else wins.
If it is the institutions / market makers who create the liquidity are on the other side, then how do we have a long term edge in the market against them?
I realize what are we essentially doing is trading the trend, but if the trend is subjective,
I guess I am wondering, where is the data that we can take confidence in that we truly are making +EV moves?
Like if Strat (seems legit and I have no doubt he is profitable) trades 1% of his account, his equity curve would look different than if I traded the same exact same way (entires and exits same position) but only with only 0.75% of my account, his equity curve would have more drawdown.
Maybe, ph2lsl (just see his name browsing the fourm as I write this) he trades identical (entries and exits) but he uses 2.5% of his account and he goes broke... although Strat and I are + money during the sample... how do we know what the optimal bet size is?
If Expected Value =
(Percentage we win * amount we win) - (Percentage we lose * amount we lose)
How do we know?
Sorry, this is not a shot at the methods of this topic, but just more of a noob trying to figure out what the numbers truly say about our trading the FX market in general
I do not mean this to be negative, I am a new trader and been having okay results, so far..just worried we are picking up pennies in front of a steam roller, this is not a shot at this method, but simply the retail trading world.
Where is our "edge" and who is on the other side of our trades? This is zero sum, we win, somebody loses, we lose, somebody else wins.
If it is the institutions / market makers who create the liquidity are on the other side, then how do we have a long term edge in the market against them?
I realize what are we essentially doing is trading the trend, but if the trend is subjective,
I guess I am wondering, where is the data that we can take confidence in that we truly are making +EV moves?
Like if Strat (seems legit and I have no doubt he is profitable) trades 1% of his account, his equity curve would look different than if I traded the same exact same way (entires and exits same position) but only with only 0.75% of my account, his equity curve would have more drawdown.
Maybe, ph2lsl (just see his name browsing the fourm as I write this) he trades identical (entries and exits) but he uses 2.5% of his account and he goes broke... although Strat and I are + money during the sample... how do we know what the optimal bet size is?
If Expected Value =
(Percentage we win * amount we win) - (Percentage we lose * amount we lose)
How do we know?
Sorry, this is not a shot at the methods of this topic, but just more of a noob trying to figure out what the numbers truly say about our trading the FX market in general