DislikedThanks DRT for your reply. I am doing my best to understand the curve approach, price distribution....It is not that easy but trying.
Txs again.
TGIgnored
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DislikedThanks DRT for your reply. I am doing my best to understand the curve approach, price distribution....It is not that easy but trying.
Txs again.
TGIgnored
DislikedJust remember.....if it was a easy as plotting a moving average or stochastic or stretching a fib grid then everyone would be doing it... make the effort...learn it and have an edge in your trading.Ignored
DislikedMy current positions from the last session are....
Short the EURUSD
Waiting to get filled for a long on USDJPY
Short the GBPUSD
Long the USDCHF.
I just wanted to remind all of you (again) that I am actually not trading the spot market. I trade currency futures, but most here don't. My personal values are slightly different in the futures market. I just covert my ideas into the cash market values for you.
I am actually
Short ECM08
Waiting for a short on JYM08
Short BPM08
Short SFM08
What I actually do is "work the curve". Once volatility develops I am constantly working in and out of positions until things align. Much like a market maker or dealer would do.
To eloaboate a little further....
even though I am expecting a move down in the Euro, I play the curve both down and up during the move. So I was short EC from Friday. It just hit a level where I am expecting a move back up. I reversed and will look to get back in short above. I "expect" the distribution to develop in an orderly manner. It certainly does not do this all the time, but in Asia especially the odds are that it will range until Europe's volume come on line, so....I trade the curve.
There is just no way I can convert all the values and post all my trades in the cash values. If you guys were trading futures, I would be glad to do this but I assume you don't watch futures. If any of you trade futures, let me know.
Here's the distribution after a few hours of trading tonight. This is how I trade it as it is developing.
http://www.askdrt.org/storage/ask-dr...stribution.PNGIgnored
Dislikedlike on the matrix I see the euro at 1.5526 .and the longest line on the volume curve is 1.5546. so I assume you will go long because the pair should reach 1.5546 to balance the curve. am I correct?
TGIgnored
DislikedTrading Plan for 6.2.2008
EURUSD
Look to set shorts at 1.5581. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.5470.
USDJPY
Look to set longs at 105.48. Risk below 105.23. Target 105.67
GBPUSD
Look to set shorts at 1.9807. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.9658.
USDCHF
Look to set longs at 1.0421. Cover on a sustained break of this level. Target 1.0517.Ignored
DislikedHello DRT,
Are you still holding onto EURUSD short? It's come back up after being low for many hours. NOt sure about the direction now.
Thanks.Ignored
DislikedYes I am. Per my earlier post abut working the curve short term, I have been long since early Asia, working the curve up to my shorting level which we just reached around 1.5565 spot price. Excellent price to short at.Ignored
DislikedThen how far down do you expect this pair to go? Are we just scalping or down is the trend?Ignored
DislikedHello DRT,
How do you work the matrix then. and the curve in the matrix. If you are willing to elaborate.
txs,
TGIgnored
DislikedI see no changes for the NA session. I will say that the way to handle this is to watch your balance levels and if we are moving through then be flexible and reverse your plans and targets.
Do not act to quickly!!!!!!!!!! Especially if it happens after the data. News rarely rules the demand supply and if it does it is only for a short time. Good luck today.
Trading Plan for the North American Session 5.30.2008
General
Currently, of the 4 majors only 1 is in reversal mode and that is cable. The USDJPY came within a few ticks of balancing yesterday but did not so technically it still needs to move down a bit. Both the Euro and the Swiss Franc still have unfinished business. While this is not a reliable indicator, it does lead me to believe we may continue to see some limited dollar strength into the end of the month.
EURUSD
Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Down
Long Target and Reverse 1.5611
Balance 1.5548
Short Target and Reverse 1.5432
BIAS - Look to set shorts on a push to balance at 5548. Target 1.5432. Reverse to longs at this level.
If the market begins to trade up through balance, cover and go long to 5611. Reverse to shorts at this level.
USDJPY
Distribution Classification = Unbalanced Up
Long Target and Reverse 105.90
Balance 105.25
Short Target and Reverse 104.85
BIAS - Look to set longs on a push down to at 105.25. Target 105.90. Reverse to short at this level.
If the market begins to trade down through balance, cover and set shorts to 104.85. Reverse back to long at this level.
GBPUSD
Distribution Classification = Balanced
Long Target and Reverse 1.9825
Balance 1.9745
Short Target and Reverse 1.9673
BIAS – Stay long above 9745. If price moves below 9745 area then cover. I would not short this pair but aggressive traders can use the 9745 area as a pivot.
If price moves down look to position long at 9673.
USDCHF
Distribution Classification = UnBalanced Up
Long Target and Reverse 1.0554
Balance 1.0459
Short Target and Reverse 1.0419
Bias – Look to set up long on a push down to balance at 1.0459 or before. Target 1.0554 and set up shorts at this level.
If we trade down through balance, exit and look to re-set longs at 1.0419.Ignored
Disliked=========================================
For shorter term and longer term trading session :
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DRT,
Good morning!
Can you still post on Balance and both target on each pair everyday? (like this one)
Just in case, any pair can move to the opposite direction.
Thanks.
Trader8686Ignored