This may be a totally lame post from me, but I really just wanted to capture an idea that's in my head at the moment and then come back tomorrow and see how it panned out.
I was studying some laws about insider trading the other day, and I know the topic's come up before here on the boards, but it got me thinking about insider trading on news release data, which, to my knowledge isn't exactly illegal.
So, in context of the GBP...
We obviously had a monstrous drop since last week following some data, and from a technical standpoint, it would seem that the current minor "uptrend" may be just an exhaustion move upwards as we shed over 300 pips just 3 trading days ago. So, we COULD explain the move upwards as the market done absorbing the previous week's news.
Tonight (tomorrow morning) we get some key data concerning the GBP...hopefully something that will provide some real momentum somewhere.
So from a fundamental perspective, could this recent (within the last 4 hours or so) tiny little spike be preemptive buying in the GBP? It really is a tiny spike, but the upward movement has legs in multiple currencies, so there could be something to it.
I suppose we could view this as just technical momentum having broken through some key resistance points, but I'm curious to see if this spike has any predictive properties to it.
At the time of this writing, the price is at 1.9728...when I wake up tomorrow, I'll double check to see the results of the news releases in relation to the new current price. Going under the assumption that this could be preemptive buying, I would expect that the price would end higher than 1.9728 by the time the news releases are public. It is my expectation, as well, that the news releases will have a positive bias, and perhaps that's what could be raising the expectations in the market.
Obviously, I'm not REALLY trying to predict what's happening here...but I just want to see if I'm right when I wake up...If I AM right, it would give me something to ponder.
I was studying some laws about insider trading the other day, and I know the topic's come up before here on the boards, but it got me thinking about insider trading on news release data, which, to my knowledge isn't exactly illegal.
So, in context of the GBP...
We obviously had a monstrous drop since last week following some data, and from a technical standpoint, it would seem that the current minor "uptrend" may be just an exhaustion move upwards as we shed over 300 pips just 3 trading days ago. So, we COULD explain the move upwards as the market done absorbing the previous week's news.
Tonight (tomorrow morning) we get some key data concerning the GBP...hopefully something that will provide some real momentum somewhere.
So from a fundamental perspective, could this recent (within the last 4 hours or so) tiny little spike be preemptive buying in the GBP? It really is a tiny spike, but the upward movement has legs in multiple currencies, so there could be something to it.
I suppose we could view this as just technical momentum having broken through some key resistance points, but I'm curious to see if this spike has any predictive properties to it.
At the time of this writing, the price is at 1.9728...when I wake up tomorrow, I'll double check to see the results of the news releases in relation to the new current price. Going under the assumption that this could be preemptive buying, I would expect that the price would end higher than 1.9728 by the time the news releases are public. It is my expectation, as well, that the news releases will have a positive bias, and perhaps that's what could be raising the expectations in the market.
Obviously, I'm not REALLY trying to predict what's happening here...but I just want to see if I'm right when I wake up...If I AM right, it would give me something to ponder.