I'd say market cycles are king. Trends only work between the start and end of cycles. BTC just today is case in point, everyone is screaming buy buy buy! The trend is up, but the trend is only your friend as long as you're buying from short sellers. If your buy order is filling someone else's take-profit order, you're likely in big trouble. BTC is late in a trade cycle, the time to buy was months ago. All instruments run in cycles, the key is to search for early cycle trades where you have strong tailwinds.
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