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Gold COT data analysis 0 replies
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COT Data 1 reply
COT data question 0 replies
Dislikedyep too late....will let things settle and look for an entry....should continue south from here.Ignored
COT Net Bias Analysis for AUDCHF - Week Ending June 18, 2024
SWISS FRANC:
Currency Pair:
Potential Market Implications:
The overall non-commercial net bias for AUDCHF is bullish. This is driven by the decreasing net short positions in both AUD and CHF, despite both currencies being individually bearish. The decrease in net short positions is larger for AUD (-35.5%) compared to CHF (-12.7%), which suggests a stronger bullish sentiment towards AUD. However, the decreasing open interest trend indicates fading momentum and potentially a less reliable signal.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR:
* Commercial Net Position: Net Long (20.8% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Decrease from the previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Decreased (-31.0%)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Decreased (-20.9%)
SWISS FRANC:
* Commercial Net Position: Net Long (50.6% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Increase from previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Increasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Decreased (-13.8%)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Decreased (-6.7%)
Net Bias for AUDCHF:
Potential Market Implications:
The commercial net bias suggests a potential for AUDCHF to rise. The data implies a possible undervaluation of CHF relative to AUD.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
C: Final Bias Assessment for AUDCHF
This section integrates the net bias data from Sections A (Non-Commercial) and B (Commercial) to determine the overall bias for the AUDCHF pair.
Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:
Conflicting Signals: While both groups lean bullish on the AUDCHF pair, the individual currency sentiments show some disagreement:
Final Net Bias for AUDCHF:
Overall Bias: Mixed, but with a potentially stronger bullish influence from commercial traders.
Rationale for Mixed Bias:
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
COT Net Bias Analysis for EURNZD - Week Ending June 18, 2024
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR:
Currency Pair:
Potential Market Implications:
The non-commercial net bias for EURNZD is bearish. Despite EUR being net long, the magnitude of the decrease in its net long position, coupled with the substantial increase in NZD net long positions, points towards strengthening bearish sentiment for EURNZD.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
B: Commercial
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:
EURO FX:
* Commercial Net Position: Net Long (5.7% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Decrease from the previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Decreased (-5.6%)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Decreased (-14.0%)
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR:
* Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-35.8% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Decrease from the previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Decreasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Decreased (-49.7%)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Decreased (-4.4%)
Net Bias for EURNZD:
Potential Market Implications:
The commercial net bias for EURNZD is bearish, mirroring the sentiment from the non-commercial side. The decreases in both EUR and NZD long positions, particularly the magnitude of the decrease in NZD longs, indicates a potential for the pair to decline.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
C: Final Bias Assessment for EURNZD
This section integrates the net bias data from Sections A (Non-Commercial) and B (Commercial) to determine the overall bias for the EURNZD pair.
Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:
Conflicting Signals: While the overall pair bias is bearish, there's a nuance within the commercial sentiment for NZD. Although the net short position decreased, the reduction was driven primarily by a significant decrease in long contracts, suggesting a weakening bullish sentiment on NZD from commercials.
Final Net Bias for EURNZD:
Overall Bias: Bearish
Rationale for Bearish Bias:
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.
Disliked{quote} With todays news and CPI in AUD coming out higher, the differential in interest rates between aud and chf has increased. So not a good trade in my opinion. The problem here is time delay between COT report being overtaken by todays AUD figure much higher than forecastIgnored
COT Net Bias Analysis for XAUUSD - Week Ending June 25, 2024
US DOLLAR (USD):
Currency Pair (XAUUSD):
Potential Market Implications:
The decrease in the net long position for GOLD, coupled with the increase in the net long position for USD by non-commercial traders, suggests a bearish outlook for XAUUSD. This indicates that speculators are becoming less bullish on GOLD and more so on the USD, which could put downward pressure on XAUUSD. The increase in USD open interest while GOLD decreases reinforces this bearish sentiment.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
B: Commercial (Hedgers):
Key Individual Currency Sentiment:
GOLD (XAU):
* Commercial Net Position: Net Long (48.5% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Increased from previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Increasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Decreased by 4,216 contracts (-9.8% Change)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Decreased by 2,100 contracts (-1.7% Change)
US DOLLAR (USD):
* Commercial Net Position: Net Short (-42.6% of OI)
* Changes in Net Position: Increased from previous week
* Open Interest Trend: Increasing
* Commercial Long Contracts: Increased by 885 contracts (+16.3% Change)
* Commercial Short Contracts: Increased by 728 contracts (+2.9% Change)
Net Bias for XAUUSD:
Potential Market Implications:
The fact that commercial traders are increasing their net long positions in GOLD while simultaneously increasing their net short positions in the USD might seem conflicting. However, this behavior could suggest that while they are hedging their GOLD exposure (potentially expecting some price decrease), they are more strongly bearish on USD, ultimately leading to a potential downward pressure on XAUUSD.
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
C: Final Bias Assessment for XAUUSD
This section integrates the net bias data from Sections A (Non-Commercial) and B (Commercial) to determine the overall bias for XAUUSD.
Reconciliation and Final Bias Assessment:
Final Net Bias for XAUUSD:
Overall Bias: Bearish
Rationale for Bearish Bias:
Trading Recommendations (Optional):
Disclaimer: This analysis is based solely on COT data and does not consider other market factors. Use this information at your own discretion and with thorough risk management.