Some of us are here to read and gather "nuggets of wisdom" from a successful trader; that's enough to keep me coming back AND 'make my day'.......
Chicky's House of Pleasure and Pain 11 replies
Carry Backet w/ Jacko's AH 10 replies
Hello Guys is a pleasure to be here. I'm new to MT4 1 reply
Jacko's P&P Trend Trading Method 73 replies
DislikedSome of us are here to read and gather "nuggets of wisdom" from a successful trader;Ignored
DislikedTo everyone,
Even though this is not a live trading thread I will try to outline, in advance, what I trade.
This week, I am looking to go long on the euro again.
However, I think that I can buy them cheaper than the current price of 1.3500. (I don't think that we will see a lower low than than 1.3370...but I can see a possible small retracement)
But....I could be wwwwwrong !!!!
But I am a buyer at 1.3450.Ignored
DislikedThe euro is sliding s l o w l y down.
I am waiting for it to go through 1.3450, then will buy as it is heading back up. (I don't want to catch a falling knife). I am still a buyer at 1.3450 (from a lower price).
Really fuzzy thinking: It may fall to 1.3510-15 then rise up. If it hits 1.3400 again I will buy it even on the way down (I will take the risk on the falling knife at that price)
(I don't believe that this market will fall below the two spike lows of 1.3359 or 1.3367...if it does then I will re-evaluate this whole market move)
PLEASE NOTE: Having said that I think the market may fall, I STILL would not short this market at the current time. I STILL believe the upside far outweighs the downside.
However, as always, I could be wwwwrong !!
.Ignored
DislikedA big to THANKS to you Jacko,
.................
What we really appreciate the way you are so generous with your thoughts on the market and the little details as to how you formulate your views. These are so valuable to even the more experienced of us. I know that there are a lot of people out there charging big bucks for systems or signals which barely break even over the longer term.
Thanks once again,
IanIgnored
DislikedHello Jako,
Interest rate differential has been the prime focus of the market for quite some time, under the current situation (Fed having cut the discount rate by 50 points) the Fed is likely to cut the interest rate by 25/50 basis points in September FMOC meeting, which obviously will weaken the dollar.
What you think about this situation?
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Fed__September_Rate_Cut_1187715410756.html
(http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Fed__September_Rate_Cut_1187715410756.html)Ignored
DislikedJacko
I have also just read an article which mirrors my own thoughts on what I believe is the big-ass "wild card" for currencies in the near future. (I was actually wondering when someone else would see the parallels in the current situation)
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...047 4353.html (http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Contagion_is_the_Worry_1187720474353.html)
I read this article and wondered whether the action on the [US] currency is clear based on parallel "fundamentals". It seems that the only clear implication is that the Yen appreciated, which we have seen again recently. I am not convinced by the rest of the logic.
Regarding US economic fundamentals I agree with your basic analysis and that should lead to a weakening dollar, especially when you throw in other factors like sovereign wealth funds. However, perversely*, it seems the dollar will benefit during a flight to safety and global markets are definitely nervous at the moment. This seems to provide a counterbalancing force to the dollar and over the next twelve months it seems that the key is whether the "US contagion" gets worse or better. My own personal view is that this will get worse before it gets better and market psychology trumps fundamentals in the short term...
*Perverse because US sub-prime defaults are the epicentre of the contagion but US has safe haven status as the world's largest economyIgnored
DislikedMe as an currency investor, I dont care about the fundamentals. I "feel good" only when the fundamentals meets my trading system. Thatīs all.
I think the EURUSD will go up too, because the EU might raise interest rates and the US might lower their rates in a good healthy economie. But if the credit crisis still continue in the EU zone, then the EURUSD will fall again.Ignored
DislikedSorry. The above post wasn't very clear...will try again...
1. I am a buyer at 1.3450 (from a lower price)
2. so, when (or if) market hits around 1.3420, I will activate a stop buy at 1.3450
3. If market continues to fall to 1.3400 I will buy at 1.3400 (and then cancel stop buy at 1.3450). Trailing stop loss will initially be set at 1.3350 (which is below previous lows).Ignored
DislikedWell actually, if you were a currency investor, you'd care primarily about fundamentals, and little about swings up and down. Maybe as a short-term currency trader, you don't care. But there are really no investors on this site--just traders like us :-)
And I'm no fundamental expert, but in a "good healthy economy," interest rates have a tendency to be raised, not lowered. Rates are lowered in part to stimulate spending in a stagnant economy.Ignored
DislikedIt's funny, it almost seemed like the market read your plan and acted against it, trading down to 1.3450 but never below it (to active the buy stop above). What's your strategy now that we've rallied?Ignored
DislikedNo you are wrong. I care about great swings up and down, because in this market like Forex you cannot expect what could happen next. U cannot predict the future if know a lot about the fundamentals. Everyone trade their own ways. They have their own "stoploss and limit orders" rules. This could explain why the market moves like a "Trend".
I called myself as an currency investor (in real I am a swing trader LOL) because i dont trade much and I analyzed the market 4 hours a week. No more, no less. I analyze the price actions only.
I mean a "good healthy economy" is the economy that are running according the rules. If this happens, you can do a little predict the market what could happens next. But even this, the price actions will tell you only when to buy and where to buy.
Ignored