Sometimes if there have been several days of a certain type of trade opportunity such as in an uptrend or in a range, and then the approach has to be changed for a new set of trading days, I end up forgetting what I previously learned.
When I'm used to looking for intraday long or short bounce opportunities I forget when it's good to look for a swing area break, or why I would have been confident about a certain swing break at the time it occurred but the following week I go back over the candles and don't know why I thought it would work out.
I know I've learned a bunch of techniques in the past month and have been proficient with them at some point but every day I find myself doubting my thinking about where things may go or why.
So I decided to start logging my daily forecasts and why I think things may work out a certain way, including screen shots of the setups and results. This way I can go back over it like a course and remember how to use the techniques in my own way and how to evaluate various setups when I'm staring blankly at a tight candle Asian session wondering what to do at 1am EST when things start moving.
I'm doing this offline in a Word file since it's easiest for me (not ready to start a journal forum, not trading yet). I have so far written my views of yesterday and in the process I discovered I was forced to think more and evaluate more objectively as if I were writing a formal paper on the subject, and I think I saw some things more clearly. I ended up with 2 full pages including 2 screen captures just for yesterday.
The most interesting part was how I ended up realizing I expected a retrace toward intraday long (with hope for a bounce) before any long move occurred, rather than a pure break of the intraday high going long. Yesterday I wasn't thinking there WOULD be a bounce, I just knew it could happen.
When I was forced to evaluate it officially I reasoned that Friday ended with a sudden big move upward and remained right up there until the end of the day, so there should be some kind of fib retrace on Monday to compensate for that and equalize the pressure of the surge. That doesn't mean it can't just continue on upward without a retrace, but what it empowers a trader to do is more intelligently consider various strategies for the session such as a scalp trade on the short side when London opens.
If a retrace is considered likely, one can place a swing area short entry with small profit targets between the session open and the retrace zone. Another day there may be a reason to let a swing breakout move more before exiting.
Today (right now, just after London open) for example we are starting out at the bottom of the Monday move down, but the move downward from yesterday wasn't an uncompensated surge. There was a 50% retrace of the first intraday down surge, and then it continued down and stalled. So a retrace to the intraday fib isn't as-expected as yesterday, making a long scalp entry out of Asia not so much of a good idea, especially since the swing high is so close to the intraday short today, not much room before resistance could occur.
Of course there was a big up surge, but that would be an anomaly for me because it happened a bit earlier than I'd expect any such move to come in a session. At best this surge would only help me consider changing my bias from short to long for today if it stays above the intraday pivot.
One thing I've learned to do in the past month is view things like a missed surge as a new opportunity, not a missed one. Instead of wondering if I should jump in late, I now know to observe for a small retrace to stabilize it and give it validity and then consider taking it at the appropriate intraday or swing opportunity.
At this moment the intraday pivot is being tested. If things open outside intraday long I'd be thinking it's time to go long. If things go back down toward intraday short I'd consider the surge to be a glorified daily retrace/bounce and get ready to proceed with a short opportunity as expected before London started.
After evaluating so many trading sessions I think most of the scenarios of how things will go, will be clear. It doesn't mean we'll know which way things will go, it means no matter which way they do, we'll be ready for them, even if they change their course mid way. We already know this pair responds well to fib levels by nature, so it's a tamed volatile beast if we can become one with it. By thinking, observing, and writing about it every day I expect to learn to handle it some day.
When I'm used to looking for intraday long or short bounce opportunities I forget when it's good to look for a swing area break, or why I would have been confident about a certain swing break at the time it occurred but the following week I go back over the candles and don't know why I thought it would work out.
I know I've learned a bunch of techniques in the past month and have been proficient with them at some point but every day I find myself doubting my thinking about where things may go or why.
So I decided to start logging my daily forecasts and why I think things may work out a certain way, including screen shots of the setups and results. This way I can go back over it like a course and remember how to use the techniques in my own way and how to evaluate various setups when I'm staring blankly at a tight candle Asian session wondering what to do at 1am EST when things start moving.
I'm doing this offline in a Word file since it's easiest for me (not ready to start a journal forum, not trading yet). I have so far written my views of yesterday and in the process I discovered I was forced to think more and evaluate more objectively as if I were writing a formal paper on the subject, and I think I saw some things more clearly. I ended up with 2 full pages including 2 screen captures just for yesterday.
The most interesting part was how I ended up realizing I expected a retrace toward intraday long (with hope for a bounce) before any long move occurred, rather than a pure break of the intraday high going long. Yesterday I wasn't thinking there WOULD be a bounce, I just knew it could happen.
When I was forced to evaluate it officially I reasoned that Friday ended with a sudden big move upward and remained right up there until the end of the day, so there should be some kind of fib retrace on Monday to compensate for that and equalize the pressure of the surge. That doesn't mean it can't just continue on upward without a retrace, but what it empowers a trader to do is more intelligently consider various strategies for the session such as a scalp trade on the short side when London opens.
If a retrace is considered likely, one can place a swing area short entry with small profit targets between the session open and the retrace zone. Another day there may be a reason to let a swing breakout move more before exiting.
Today (right now, just after London open) for example we are starting out at the bottom of the Monday move down, but the move downward from yesterday wasn't an uncompensated surge. There was a 50% retrace of the first intraday down surge, and then it continued down and stalled. So a retrace to the intraday fib isn't as-expected as yesterday, making a long scalp entry out of Asia not so much of a good idea, especially since the swing high is so close to the intraday short today, not much room before resistance could occur.
Of course there was a big up surge, but that would be an anomaly for me because it happened a bit earlier than I'd expect any such move to come in a session. At best this surge would only help me consider changing my bias from short to long for today if it stays above the intraday pivot.
One thing I've learned to do in the past month is view things like a missed surge as a new opportunity, not a missed one. Instead of wondering if I should jump in late, I now know to observe for a small retrace to stabilize it and give it validity and then consider taking it at the appropriate intraday or swing opportunity.
At this moment the intraday pivot is being tested. If things open outside intraday long I'd be thinking it's time to go long. If things go back down toward intraday short I'd consider the surge to be a glorified daily retrace/bounce and get ready to proceed with a short opportunity as expected before London started.
After evaluating so many trading sessions I think most of the scenarios of how things will go, will be clear. It doesn't mean we'll know which way things will go, it means no matter which way they do, we'll be ready for them, even if they change their course mid way. We already know this pair responds well to fib levels by nature, so it's a tamed volatile beast if we can become one with it. By thinking, observing, and writing about it every day I expect to learn to handle it some day.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't."
-Anonymous hillbilly