Last Q3, UK GDP came out 0.7% vs 0.6% estimate and boosted GBPUSD up by 75 pips in 3 hours.
Comparing some UK Data
Retail Sales
Jul -0.3%
Aug +0.3%
Sep -0.4%
Q3 = -0.1%
Oct +0.9%
Nov +0.3%
Dec +1.1%
Q4 = +2.3%
Industrial Production
Jul -0.1%
Aug +0.2%
Sep +0.1%
Q3 = +0.4%
Oct +0.2%
Nov -0.8%
Dec +0.5%
Q4 = -0.1%
Manufacturing Production
Jul +0.1%
Aug +0.2%
Sep +0.4%
Q3 = 0.7%
Oct +0.0%
Nov -0.4%
Dec +0.3%
Q4 = 0.7%
In the above data, only UK Industrial Production for Q4 is lower that Q3, but Retail Sales for Q4 increased from -0.1% to 2.3%! In USA GDP, Retail Sales is said to be 70% of GDP. IF we were to gauge UK GDP with the above data, UK GDP should be better than 0.7% as estimated. Of course there are other factors involved in the computation.
According to UK National Statistics Online (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=56), the first GDP estimate will be based on Output:
Comparing some UK Data
Retail Sales
Jul -0.3%
Aug +0.3%
Sep -0.4%
Q3 = -0.1%
Oct +0.9%
Nov +0.3%
Dec +1.1%
Q4 = +2.3%
Industrial Production
Jul -0.1%
Aug +0.2%
Sep +0.1%
Q3 = +0.4%
Oct +0.2%
Nov -0.8%
Dec +0.5%
Q4 = -0.1%
Manufacturing Production
Jul +0.1%
Aug +0.2%
Sep +0.4%
Q3 = 0.7%
Oct +0.0%
Nov -0.4%
Dec +0.3%
Q4 = 0.7%
In the above data, only UK Industrial Production for Q4 is lower that Q3, but Retail Sales for Q4 increased from -0.1% to 2.3%! In USA GDP, Retail Sales is said to be 70% of GDP. IF we were to gauge UK GDP with the above data, UK GDP should be better than 0.7% as estimated. Of course there are other factors involved in the computation.
According to UK National Statistics Online (http://www.statistics.gov.uk/CCI/nugget.asp?ID=56), the first GDP estimate will be based on Output:
QuoteDislikedGDP from the output or production approach - GDP(O) measures the sum of the value added created through the production of goods and services within the economy (our production or output as an economy). This approach provides the first estimate of GDP and can be used to show how much different industries (for example, agriculture) contribute within the economy.