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THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: JUNE 2008
Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down in June (-62,000), while
the unemployment rate held at 5.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of
the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Employment continued to fall in
construction, manufacturing, and employment services, while health care and
mining added jobs. Average hourly earnings rose by 6 cents, or 0.3 percent,
over the month.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged in June, at
8.5 million, and the unemployment rate held at 5.5 percent. A year earlier,
the number of unemployed persons was 7.0 million, and the jobless rate was
4.6 percent. (See table A-1.)
The unemployment rate for Hispanics (7.7 percent) increased over the month,
while the rate for adult men (5.1 percent) continued to trend up. Jobless
rates for adult women (4.7 percent), teenagers (18.1 percent), whites (4.9 per-
cent), and blacks (9.2 percent) showed little or no change in June. The unem-
ployment rate for Asians was 4.5 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables
A-1, A-2, and A-3.)
Among the unemployed, the number of persons who had lost their last job was
essentially unchanged at 4.4 million in June, but has risen by 952,000 over the
past 12 months. The numbers of unemployed reentrants and new entrants to the
labor force were little changed in June; both groups had increased sharply in
May. (See table A-8.)
Following a large increase in May, the number of newly unemployed--those job-
less fewer than 5 weeks--decreased by 532,000 in June. The number of persons un-
employed 5 to 14 weeks rose by 530,000 over the month. The number of long-term
unemployed (those persons jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged
in June at 1.6 million; this group accounted for 18.4 percent of the unemployed.
PMI
Manufacturing grew in June as the PMI registered 50.2 percent, 0.6 percentage point higher than the 49.6 percent reported in May. A reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally contracting.
A PMI in excess of 41.1 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. Therefore, the PMI indicates the overall economy and the manufacturing sector are growing at this time. Ore stated, "The past relationship between the PMI and the overall economy indicates that the average PMI for January through June (49.3 percent) corresponds to a 2.6 percent increase in real gross domestic product (GDP). In addition, if the PMI for June (50.2 percent) is annualized, it corresponds to a 2.9 percent increase in real GDP annually."
THE LAST 12 MONTHS
Month
PMI
Month
PMI
Jun 200850.2
Dec 2007
48.4
May 2008
49.6
Nov 2007
50.0
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
JUNE 2008
Index
Series
Index
June
Series
Index
May
Percentage
Point
Change
Direction
Rate
of
Change
Trend*
(Months)
50.2
49.6
+0.6
Growing
From Contracting
1
New Orders49.6
49.7
-0.1
Contracting
Faster
7
Production51.5
51.2
+0.3
Growing
Faster
2
Employment43.7
45.5
-1.8
Contracting
Faster
8
Supplier Deliveries55.1
53.7
+1.4
Slowing
Faster
12
Inventories51.2
48.0
+3.2
Growing
From Contracting
1
Customers' Inventories55.0
47.0
+8.0
Too High
From Too Low
1