Hi David,
Maybe it's because I use a broker that aggregates all trades for a pair into a single averaged position, but points 1-4 are, well - obvious. Not always the nicest way to trade, as I'd often prefer being able to keep the trades separate, but when the broker does this you have no other way of looking at a position.
As to 5. RR, I have to agree - it's irrelevant to trading as it measures performance after the results are in. Similarly, expectancy is a performance measurement cooked up by Tharp to make his books seem more scientific / theoretical. Also only available after the fact. You can analyse any system and get the historical figures but I'm skeptical about using them as a basis for future trading.
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I suspect that this could be a very useful concept. I can thumb suck means for pairs that are ranging EJ and GJ, but how does one handle trending currencies like EU and EG where any mean is south of the trend and may not to be reached for years if at all?
And what is long term? Months, years?
Finally, when you refer to government intervention are you suggesting that this intervention extends beyond the setting of interest rates and money supply?
I still have to look at all the links you've provided. Thanks for an interesting post.
Maybe it's because I use a broker that aggregates all trades for a pair into a single averaged position, but points 1-4 are, well - obvious. Not always the nicest way to trade, as I'd often prefer being able to keep the trades separate, but when the broker does this you have no other way of looking at a position.
As to 5. RR, I have to agree - it's irrelevant to trading as it measures performance after the results are in. Similarly, expectancy is a performance measurement cooked up by Tharp to make his books seem more scientific / theoretical. Also only available after the fact. You can analyse any system and get the historical figures but I'm skeptical about using them as a basis for future trading.
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Disliked... forex tends (on balance) to revert to a mean, (1) in the long term, due to national economic boom/bust cycles, and government/bank intervention,when economic indicators reach "undesirable" extremes, andIgnored
And what is long term? Months, years?
Finally, when you refer to government intervention are you suggesting that this intervention extends beyond the setting of interest rates and money supply?
I still have to look at all the links you've provided. Thanks for an interesting post.