DislikedI would say im good at stats. but in forex i tend to use basic stats a little bit of standard deviation and probabilities thats all.Ignored
Simple Moving Average Vs. Moving Average? 8 replies
Does Moving average actually act as moving S/R ?? 20 replies
Very Simple Moving Average 20 replies
Very noobish question about EMAs 6 replies
DislikedI would say im good at stats. but in forex i tend to use basic stats a little bit of standard deviation and probabilities thats all.Ignored
DislikedSTDEV is where i can understand that actual stats come into it..finding deviation from the mean is handy and not something u can do from glancing at the tablesIgnored
DislikedAnyone doing a regular STDEV on forex data is going to get trashed by the market. The market doesn't tend to a normal distribution.Ignored
DislikedNot necessarily, I use it to track the performance of trades that have been done and fine tuning trades for future events over months.Ignored
DislikedYour query is a little fun to me,
may be the correlation of electrical wave form vs forex waveform..haha..
I am an electrical engineer too
should I mention here...hahaha
I got a feeling why u ask this..Ignored
DislikedNot necessarily, I use it to track the performance of trades that have been done and fine tuning trades for future events over months.Ignored
DislikedTraditional standard deviation calculations don't work in forex because the distribution isn't Gaussian. Typically, data is positively skewed (positive long tail). Additionally, when doing means you usually want to aim for the geometric mean, rather than a simple arithmetic mean. That can be confusing. Basically, start with a grouped frequency distribution of whatever you're studying and work from there. You can learn a lot from that.Ignored
DislikedAs you can see there is one less win over the 96 trades when using BE .
These results are not enough to come to any conclusion but I did notice that the DD on the BE strategy was less in comparison to without.
[size=3][font=Calibri]If more people could post up results in a similar fashion we could come to a reasonable conclusion as to whether it is worse or better, from my results I might actually change my strategy to BE as the MAX DD was...Ignored
DislikedIt never had them. It's a logistic distribution. Later tonight, if I get time, I'll post some graphs.
For now...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution
And
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-logistic_distribution
And
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_distributionIgnored
DislikedThey have to be trading nano-lots or something, because someone trading 10 lots isn't going to let $10K+ profit dwindle to nothingIgnored
Dislikedsample from any pair show a Gaussian distribution? Graphs are not necessary. I am familiar with the subject matter.Ignored
DislikedI trade short term with (normally) a 10 pip profit target and one thing I can't get my mind around: several people on this and the other SL at BE threads talk about being 30, 50 100, even 150 pips in profit and moving stops to break even......and often getting stopped out. At what point do people start taking money off the table? I just can't fathom someone being 100 pips in profit and giving it all back. They have to be trading nano-lots or something, because someone trading 10 lots isn't going to let $10K+ profit dwindle to nothing (if they do,...Ignored
DislikedI'm guessing you trade on a higher timeframe than intra-day, and you're probably looking at moves that last several days or longer, versus several hours and shorter.Ignored
DislikedRight. My signals are from a Weekly-Daily combination. I don't look at anything under 240 minutes because it messes me up - I start freaking out if I see a reversal signal on the 15-minute, even though it has little relevance to the likely higher timeframe move.Ignored
DislikedApples to oranges. You can track the performance of trades, ie: returns, because returns DO (at least usually) follow a normal distribution.
You cannot work with price data using a normal distribution. Well, you can, but it will have an abysmal failure rate.
All you need to do is pull up any price series data and run a grouped frequency study, then plot the results on a graph. You'll see the real distribution in action.Ignored